A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO ASSESSING THE SECURITY OF BUILT HERITAGE SITES USING FIRE RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION METHODOLOGY

Abstract

This article presents a comprehensive analysis of fire safety within monastic complexes in Bulgaria — designated as immovable cultural property — utilizing a field-tested risk assessment methodology. The study employs a multidisciplinary research design, integrating longitudinal data from over 500 buildings, with a focused statistical evaluation of 61 representative monastic sites. The methodological framework utilizes eight groups of risk indicators, categorized into unmanageable (variables), manageable (controllable), and neutral conditions. Descriptive and cluster analyses reveal a prevalent “Management-Driven Risk Profile”, where the highest risk levels are concentrated in Technical Installations (Factor IV) and Legal/Organizational Measures (Factor VIII). A Pearson correlation analysis identifies a near-perfect association (r = 0.99) between administrative deficits and technical vulnerability, mathematically proving that fire risk is primarily systemic rather than environmental. To address these findings, the study substantiates a paradigm shift toward an “inclusive safety culture” and the strategic integration of municipal voluntary formations. The results provide an empirical foundation for a transition from reactive firefighting to a proactive, integrated risk management model for cultural heritage preservation.